July 2009
Cause & Effect, Time & Space, and Baseball Announcers
Does the following scenario bother anybody besides me?
I’ll be listening to the Braves game on the radio and someone, let’s say Yunel Escobar, gets thrown out attempting to steal second base.
The next batter, let’s say Matt Diaz, then doubles to right center field.
The announcer, let’s say Don Sutton, then says, “That caught stealing really hurts now; the Braves would have had a run.”
Now I’m no theoretical physicist and I’ve read just enough science and just enough philosophy to be dangerous, but isn’t it true that Don’s observation is based on a flawed view of reality?
Granted, had Escobar been successful in his attempt to steal second, he would have been in scoring position had Diaz followed with a double.
But, is it not the case that there is no way to know if Diaz would have still gotten the double had Escobar been safe at second? Does not the flow of events along the space-time continuum change depending on whether Escobar is safe or out? Is it not true that all events subsequent to Escobar’s steal attempt will be different depending upon whether he makes it to second or not?
Of course, we can come at this question from a baseball perspective.
It’s likely that the pitcher will pitch Diaz differently depending on whether Escobar is on second with one out or the bases are empty with two outs.
So, in the interest of rational thinking, a proper world-view, baseball strategy, and decent announcing, I say that announcers should not try to predict what the future would have been had events gone a different way than they in fact did.
Because they didn’t.
“This Way We Keep Everybody”?
That was the reason that manager Bobby Cox gave for the Braves’ decision to keep Greg Norton and to option Brooks Conrad to AAA Gwinnett, a decision that was forced when Kelly Johnson was activated from his rehab stint with the G-Braves.
I understand the logic but I have to disagree with it.
What the Braves did was keep Norton, a professional pinch-hitter who has not hit this year (.111 or 5-for-45 with no homers and four RBIs) and who pretty much never plays in the field, rather than Conrad, who has hit .344 (11-for-32) with two triples, two homers and eight RBIs in only 14 games and who has played excellent second base when called upon to do so.
Conrad also brings some extra fire and life to the Braves when he’s in the lineup.
It seems to me that the wiser move would have been to release Norton and to keep Conrad.
I do hope, though, that Kelly Johnson will adapt well to his new role as a utility player and that he has found his long-lost hitting stroke. He could be very valuable as a back-up second baseman and outfielder and as a left-handed pinch-hitter.
In short, Johnson is the kind of versatile player you like to have on your bench–the kind of player that Norton used to be and that Conrad is now.
My Wild Card Hypocrisy
I have never been a fan of the wild card system in Major League Baseball for two reasons.
First, I don’t think that a team should be rewarded with a playoff spot for finishing in second place. I am old enough to remember when there were no divisions in MLB; the first place finisher in the National League played the first place finisher in the American League in the World Series and, unless there was a tie in one of the leagues, that was all the playoff there was. I kind of miss that system: two leagues, two champions, one World Series.
Now, some will protest my reasoning on the basis of the fact that in recent years a Wild Card team has often won the World Series but I would still insist that a second place team should not have been there in the first place. As we all know, the team that wins a playoff series is often the team that gets hot and not necessarily the “best” team; it is conceivable that you could throw a third place team into the mix and, if things fall right, they just might win a short series.
Second, I fear that baseball will continue to expand its playoff system so that more and more non-champion teams (another way to refer to wild card teams) will get in. The specter of MLB’s playoffs coming to look like those of the NBA in terms of the number of really average teams that get in gives me a sick feeling.
Why, then, do I find myself getting excited about the Braves being in serious competition for the NL Wild Card spot?
Perhaps it’s just a concession to reality. For one thing, I really don’t think, although I haven’t given up hope, that the Braves can catch the Phillies and win the Eastern Division. For another thing, given that the Braves haven’t made the playoffs since 2005 and I miss the excitement of the postseason, I just want them to make it under any circumstances.
So I admit it–I’m a hypocrite.
But I do have another reason: I have really enjoyed watching the development of this team and I would like to see them rewarded for the growth they have experienced and for the adjustments they have made. The Braves have a nice mix going: excellent starting pitching (and let’s give Frank Wren some credit for the Lowe, Vasquez, and Kawakami acquisitions), a bullpen that has been fairly solid given that some of them have been seriously overworked, and an offense that seems to have finally hit its stride for several reasons, including a willingness to play small ball and the replacing of some players who had become almost automatic outs, such as Kelly Johnson and Jeff Francoeur.
So let the race begin–or, more accurately, continue.
If the Braves win the Wild Card, I’ll just have to be content with chanting “We’re #2!”
ruffinml
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